With one week remaining before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, Democrats appear increasingly likely to take control of the House, while the Senate remains closely contested. Midterm elections have historically been difficult for the president’s party. President Trump’s approval rating, which has hovered in the high 30s in recent polling, adds to the headwinds facing Republicans this year. Continued voter frustration over the cost of living has expanded the number of competitive races and raised the possibility of larger Democratic gains than anticipated earlier in the election cycle. The outcome will determine not only which party controls Congress, but also how Washington operates during the final two years of President Trump’s term.

To help clients better understand what Election Day results mean, McGuireWoods Consulting will host a post-election webinar on Nov. 5 featuring a conversation with Jonathan Martin, POLITICO’s politics bureau chief and senior political columnist, followed by analysis from our federal team. The discussion will examine the election results and their implications for congressional leadership, oversight, legislative priorities and the policy environment heading into 2027. 

Ahead of Election Day, this final update builds on our October 5 Election Overview and October 21 Midterm Update, highlighting recent changes in the electoral landscape, the remaining uncertainties and what to watch as the results come in.

Where the Races Stand

Most major forecasters now favor Democrats to win both chambers, although their confidence differs considerably. Models from Decision Desk HQ and Silver Bulletin give Democrats roughly an 80-95% chance of winning the House, compared with approximately 57-75% in the Senate. The forecasts reflect an increasingly favorable environment for Democrats, but the Senate remains competitive enough that relatively small changes in a handful of races could determine control.

The House has seen the clearest movement. On Oct. 23, the Cook Political Report shifted another 19 races toward Democrats, bringing the number of seats rated at least lean Democrat to 220, enough for a majority even without winning any toss ups. Cook also increased its projected Democratic gains to between 12 and 22 seats, up from nine to 19 earlier this month. The question is increasingly not just whether Democrats will win the House, but by how much. The size of the majority would affect leadership’s ability to manage internal divisions, advance legislation and exercise oversight.

The Senate remains a more difficult proposition for Democrats, despite the increasingly favorable national environment. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, meaning Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control. North Carolina is now their strongest pickup opportunity, but even with a victory there, Democrats would need to win at least three of the six Republican-held toss ups. They must also defend competitive seats of their own, particularly Michigan. Several of their opportunities are in traditionally Republican states, including Texas, Kansas and Alaska, where Democrats must overcome significant partisan advantages. Close polling across the battlegrounds suggests a Senate majority is within reach, but converting that opportunity into control will require Democrats to win a series of closely contested races across a politically diverse map.

The gubernatorial map has also continued to move toward Democrats, with 36 governorships on the ballot this year. On Oct. 23, Cook shifted Ohio’s open race between Democrat Amy Acton and Republican Vivek Ramaswamy from toss up to lean Democrat following controversy over a Ramaswamy campaign advertisement. Together with Democratic opportunities in Iowa and Alaska, the change puts additional Republican-held governorships within reach, while Republicans continue to target Democratic-held seats in Kansas and Wisconsin. Republicans currently hold a narrow 26-24 advantage in governorships nationwide, meaning even a handful of changes could alter the partisan balance and reshape state policy priorities heading into 2027.

Turnout and the Electorate

Nearly 29 million Americans have already cast ballots as of Oct. 26, with early voting running ahead of 2022 levels in several battleground states. Turnout has been particularly strong in some traditionally Republican states now hosting unexpectedly competitive Senate races, including Texas and Kansas. That level of engagement reflects the heightened attention these contests have drawn in the final weeks, although early turnout alone offers limited insight into which party will ultimately benefit.

The makeup of the electorate remains a key uncertainty. Democrats’ prospects will depend on whether the energy behind their campaigns translates into votes beyond the party’s most reliable supporters. Republicans, meanwhile, are working to mobilize voters who helped elect President Trump in 2024 but do not consistently participate in midterm elections. Their success, along with the choices of independents and voters willing to split their tickets, could determine whether Democratic gains are concentrated in the House or extend to a Senate majority.

When to Expect Results

Control of one or both chambers may not be clear on election night. Alaska and Maine use ranked-choice voting, which can extend the counting process in close races. Alaska’s ranked-choice tabulation is scheduled for Nov. 18. In Georgia, a Senate race in which no candidate receives a majority would advance to a Dec. 1 runoff and Louisiana will hold House runoffs on Dec. 12 where necessary.

Election-related legal disputes could also complicate the timing of results in close races. In California, the Justice Department is already seeking to prevent roughly 20,000 mail ballots from being counted until officials verify the voters’ citizenship. A federal appeals court dismissed the administration’s emergency appeal on Oct. 26, leaving the case before a lower court. In Alaska, two Senate candidates have nearly identical names: incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. The Justice Department argues that this could confuse voters and has asked a court to delay certification of the election results if the incumbent loses by fewer votes than the other Sullivan receives. While these disputes are limited to individual states, they illustrate how legal challenges could prolong uncertainty in closely contested elections.

What Comes Next for Washington, D.C.

The election’s first implications could be felt before the new Congress convenes. Lawmakers will return to Washington for a compressed lame-duck session, with government funding scheduled to expire on Dec. 11. Congress also faces unfinished defense, healthcare and permitting legislation. The results could influence which measures congressional leaders seek to complete before January, particularly if control of one or both chambers is set to change. If Democrats win one or both chambers, some may favor a short-term funding extension to give the new Congress greater influence over appropriations. Republicans could also pursue another budget reconciliation package to advance remaining priorities before the new Congress takes office, although narrow margins and limited floor time could complicate that effort.

A Democratic House would bring significant changes to congressional leadership, committee agendas and oversight priorities. New committee leadership would likely bring changes in hearing agendas and investigative priorities, including greater scrutiny of federal spending, agency decisions, government contracting and private-sector entities involved in those activities.

The legislative outlook would depend heavily on whether Democrats control one chamber or both. Democrats would likely emphasize affordability, healthcare costs, utility bills and tariffs, while Republicans would continue to prioritize tax policy, domestic energy production, permitting and deregulation. A Democratic House could block legislation lacking bipartisan support and gain leverage in negotiations over government funding, but would have limited ability to enact its own agenda without Senate and White House agreement. Democratic control of the Senate would provide an additional check on judicial and executive branch nominations.

In any configuration, Congress will face decisions on full-year government funding, the debt ceiling and unfinished legislation such as the farm bill. Those negotiations could directly affect appropriations, grants, federal contracts and project timelines. Affordability concerns will also shape debates over healthcare, energy prices and the costs associated with data center expansion. Meanwhile, the Trump administration can continue advancing elements of its trade, immigration and regulatory agenda through executive action, regardless of which party controls Congress. If Democrats take control of both chambers, the administration may rely more heavily on those tools as major legislative agreements become harder to reach. 

For businesses and organizations planning for 2027, the election will shape legislative opportunities, federal funding decisions and the extent of congressional oversight. Our federal team will examine these developments further during our post-election webinar and work with clients to understand the implications for their priorities in Washington.