On Oct. 30, The World Today, a program of the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, featured an interview with McGuireWoods Consulting President Gov. James Hodges on the state of the U.S. presidential race. Hodges, the former governor of South Carolina and former national co-chair of the Obama for President campaign in 2008, noted how tight the election is, with each side holding very different perspectives. “It’s really interesting. You talk to either side, and they believe they have the edge in the race. It’s really razor-thin margins. I think Harris has had more room for growth; Trump is always tapped out at about 48%. So I’d give the nod to Harris if she’s able to get the turnout that I think she’s going to be able to get,” Hodges said.
Hodges remarked that abortion has become a key wedge issue for Democrats since the end of Roe v. Wade. “The abortion issue is a big one here in the United States post the dismantling of Roe v. Wade. And there are a whole range of issues that have led women voters to support Democratic candidates. The biggest change over the last couple of years is the rise of the suburban female voter, particularly college-educated suburban voters, as a key demographic for Democrats. That is why Biden was able to win Georgia last time. It is, frankly, the reason they are able to hang on in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania,” Hodges said.
On the other side of the political equation, Hodges noted that one of Trump’s most powerful strengths—the perception of being a steward of the economy—has encountered issues due to inconsistent messaging. “One problem for Trump and the Trump campaign is that he tends to chase every shining object that comes along. They have had trouble staying focused on the strongest message they have, the economic message. When they have done that, they have done pretty well, particularly with the demographics they are focused on. But that campaign continues to shoot themselves in the foot. I will say this: he has galvanized rural voters and blue-collar voters in the way he did in 2016. I just don’t think it is enough to be able to win.”
The 2020 election saw a post-26th Amendment turnout record, and Hodges expects voters to remain highly involved in this race. “Voters are very engaged and mobilized. The campaigns are spending a huge amount of money on get-out-the-vote efforts. The difference in this campaign is that Democrats are using their traditional machinery, which focuses on early voting and voting by mail, along with extensive work in Democratic neighborhoods. There is substantial voter engagement, because I think people believe this is a watershed election. For that reason, I think we will see big turnout,” Hodges said.
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