118th Congressional Leadership Outlook

November 17, 2022

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The 118th Congress will be divided when it convenes in January 2023. After the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats will retain control of the Senate and the Republicans will control the House.

On November 15, 2022, House Republicans nominated Representative Kevin McCarthy as Speaker, defeating Representative Andy Biggs 188-31. To officially become Speaker, Representative McCarthy needs 218 votes from the full House when it convenes in January 2023.

On November 16, 2022, the Senate Republican caucus reelected Senator Mitch McConnell as their leader. Senate Democrats are expected to host their leadership conference on December 8th and will reelect Senator Chuck Schumer as Majority Leader.

Because Congress will be divided, we expect significant action within the Committees. Here is a summary of the expected Senate and House congressional and committee leadership next Congress.

Senate Leadership Outlook

Title

Majority

Minority

Notes

Leader

Chuck Schumer (D-NY)*

Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

*Democrats are expected to hold leadership elections December 8th

President Pro Tempore

Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA)

Sen. Schumer has announced that he will nominate Sen. Murray to serve as Senate President Pro Tempore following Sen. Leahy’s retirement.

Whip

Dick Durbin (D-IL)*

John Thune (R-SD)

Unchanged.

Policy Chair

Debbie Stabenow (D-MI)*

Joni Ernst (R-IA)

Former Republican Policy Chair Roy Blunt is retiring.

Conference Chair

Chuck Schumer (D-NY)*

John Barrasso (R-WY)

Unchanged.

Conference Vice Chair

Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)*

Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV)

Sen. Capito steps into the role following Sen. Ernst move to Policy Chair.

Steering Committee

Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)

Sen. Klobuchar has not disclosed if she will remain chair of the committee.

 

Potential Senate Committee Leadership Outlook

Committee

Committee Chair

Committee Ranking Member

Notes

Aging

Bob Casey (D-PA)

Mike Braun (R-IN)

Former Ranking Member Sen. Tim Scott is expected to be the Ranking Member of Banking. Sen. Braun is next in line.

Agriculture

Debbie Stabenow (D-MI)

John Boozman (R-AR)

Sen. Klobuchar is next in line if Sen. Stabenow decides not to be chair of the committee.

Appropriations

Patty Murray (D-WA)

Susan Collins (R-ME)

Sen. Murray has seniority following the retirement of Sen. Leahy.

With former Ranking Member Sen. Shelby retiring, Sen. Collins is next in line for Ranking Member. 

Armed Services

Jack Reed (D-RI)

Roger Wicker (R-MS)

With former Ranking Member Sen. Inhofe retiring, Sen. Wicker is next in line for Ranking Member.

Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs

Sherrod Brown (D-OH)

Tim Scott (R-SC)

With former Ranking Member Sen. Toomey retiring, Sen. Tim Scott is next in line for Ranking Member.

Budget

Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI)

Lindsey Graham (R-SC)

Sen. Sanders is expected to chair the HELP committee. Sen. Whitehouse is the next senior-most member.

Commerce

Maria Cantwell (D-WA)

Ted Cruz (R-TX)

With former Ranking Member Sen. Blunt retiring and Sen. Thune expected to become Whip, Sen. Cruz is next in line for Ranking Member.

Energy and Natural Resources

Joe Manchin (D-WV)

John Barrasso (R-WY)

Unchanged.

Environment and Public Works

Tom Carper (D-DE)

Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV)

Unchanged.

Ethics

Chris Coons (D-DE)

James Lankford (R-OK)

With Sen. Paul choosing Homeland Security, Sen. Lankford is in line to remain as the Ranking Member of the Ethics committee.

Finance

Ron Wyden (D-OR)

Mike Crapo (R-ID)

Unchanged.

Foreign Relations

Bob Menendez (D-NJ)

James Risch (R-ID)

Unchanged.

Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP)

Bernie Sanders (I-VT)

Bill Cassidy (R-LA)

Sen. Sanders has voiced preference on chairing the HELP committee.

Sen. Paul has announced he will pass on becoming the Ranking Member of HELP. With Sen. Burr retiring, Sen. Cassidy is next in line.

Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs

Gary Peters (D-MI)

Rand Paul (R-KY)

Sen. Paul announced he will take the ranking Republican seat on the committee, passing on the health committee’s top spot in favor of one that could give him a broader oversight perch.

Indian Affairs

Brian Schatz (D-HI)

Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)*

*Pending Alaska election results. Sen. Hoeven is next in line.

Intelligence

Mark Warner (D-VA)

Marco Rubio (R-FL)

Unchanged.

International Narcotics Council

Richard Blumenthal (D-CT)

John Cornyn (R-TX)

With Sen. Whitehouse and Sen. Sanders chairing other committees, Sen. Blumenthal is next in line.

Judiciary

Dick Durbin (D-IL)

Chuck Grassley (R-IA)

Unchanged.

Rules and Administration

Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)

Deb Fischer (R-NE)

With Former Ranking Member Sen. Blunt retiring, Sen. Fischer is next in line.

Small Business

Ben Cardin (D-MD)

Joni Ernst (R-IA)

Unchanged.

Veterans’ Affairs

Jon Tester (D-MT)

Jerry Moran (R-KS)

Unchanged.

 

House Leadership Outlook

Title

Majority

Minority

Notes

Speaker

Kevin McCarthy (R-CA)*

*Needs 218 votes from full House. Election will be held January 3, 2023.

Leader

Steve Scalise (R-LA)

TBD*

*Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) is expected to be the front-runner to lead House Democrats.

Whip

Tom Emmer (R-MN)

TBD*

*Possible candidates include Katherine Clark (D-MA) and Pramila Jayapal (D-WA).

 

Potential House Committee Leadership Outlook

Committee

Committee Chair

Committee Ranking Member

Notes

Agriculture

G.T Thompson (R-PA)

David Scott (D-GA)

Appropriations

Kay Granger (R-TX)

TBD

Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) has declared her intention to run for Ranking, but Rep. Hoyer may reclaim this position when no longer in leadership.

Armed Services

Mike Rogers (R-AL)

Adam Smith (D-WA)

Budget

TBD

Brian Higgins (D-NY)

Potential Chair candidates include Jason Smith (R-MO), Jodey Arrington (R-TX), Lloyd Smucker (R-PA), and Buddy Carter (R-GA).

Potential Ranking Member alternative is Brendan Boyle (D-PA).

Education and the Workforce

Tim Walberg (R-MI)

Bobby Scott (D-VA)

Tim Walberg is most likely to receive chairmanship. Jim Banks (R-IN) is also a possibility.

Energy and Commerce

Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA)

Frank Pallone (D-NJ)

Ethics

Michael Guest (R-MS)

TBD

Financial Services

Patrick McHenry (R-NC)

Maxine Waters (D-CA)

Foreign Affairs

Michael McCaul (R-TX)

Gregory Meeks (D-NY)

Homeland Security

TBD

Bennie Thompson (D-MS)

Potential Chair candidates include Dan Crenshaw (R-TX), Mark Green (R-TN), Clay Higgins (R-LA), Kat Cammack (R-FL), and Dan Bishop (R-NC).

House Administration

TBD

Zoe Lofgren (D-CA)

Potential Chair candidates include Bryan Steil (R-WI) and Barry Loudermilk (R-GA).

Judiciary

Jim Jordan (R-OH)

Jerrold Nadler (D-NY)

Natural Resources

Bruce Westerman (R-AR)

Raul M. Grijalva (D-AZ)

Oversight and Reform

Jim Comer (R-KY)

TBD

Potential Ranking Member candidates include Stephen Lynch (D-MA), Gerald Connolly (D-VA), and Jamie Raskin (D-MD).

Rules

Tom Cole (R-OK)

Jim McGovern (D-MA)

Science, Space and Technology

Frank Lucas (R-OK)

TBD

Potential Ranking Member candidates include Zoe Lofgren (D-CA), Suzanne Bonamici (D-OR), and Haley Stevens (D-MI).

Small Business

Blaine Luetkemeyer (R-MO)

Nydia Velazquez (D-NY)

If needed, Chair alternatives include Roger Williams (R-TX) and Pete Stauber (R-MN).

Transportation and Infrastructure

Sam Graves (R-MO)

TBD

Potential Ranking Member candidates include Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-D.C) and Rick Larsen (D-WA).

Veterans’ Affairs

Mike Bost (R-IL)

Mark Takano (D-CA)

Ways and Means

TBD

Richard Neal (D-MA)

Potential Chair candidates include Adrian Smith (R-NE), Vern Buchanan (R-FL), and Jason Smith (R-MO).

Intelligence

Mike Turner (R-OH)

Adam Schiff (D-CA)

Republican Study Committee

Kevin Hern (R-OK)

N/A

Potential Chair alternative is Jim Banks (R-IN).