In California, the sequel to a new Trump presidency will have significant implications on how its leaders – from Gov. Gavin Newsom to the legislature to the locals – will govern its constituents. Since last week’s election, Newsom called for a Special Session of the California legislature to “safeguard California values and fundamental rights in the face of the incoming Trump administration.” On Thursday, California’s Attorney General Rob Bonta called a press conference to announce “preparations for a second Trump Administration” his office will take in the coming months.
During President Trump’s first term, the state of California filed 122 lawsuits targeting federal policy changes that conflicted with the state’s priorities, particularly in areas like climate change, immigration protections, and healthcare, including countless legislative proposals aimed at countering Trump’s policies.
At the state level, the Democrats in California’s legislature have held a supermajority since 2012. No one expected that to change with this election cycle – but we anticipated a shift in the makeup of the legislative body and a potential shakeup of the legislature’s “status quo.” For example, there are 12 newly elected state senators and 24 newly elected state assemblymembers. This influx of newly elected officials will have a profound impact on the policies California chooses to prioritize – especially with Trump sitting in the Oval Office.
Additionally, California voted on 10 statewide propositions and hundreds of local ballot measures. Interestingly, even as blue as California’s elected leaders are (Democrats hold every statewide office and super-majorities in the both houses of the legislature), it appears the electorate is a little more moderate, having approved or voted down several right-leaning propositions: including a measure that reforms Proposition 47 (2014), which will increase penalties for crimes (like theft or drug possession), or voting down Proposition 32, which would raise the state’s minimum wage. Moreover, two big city district attorneys who are largely seen as leading California’s criminal justice reform movement, George Gascon in Los Angeles County and Pamela Price from Alameda County, lost their prominent positions – Gascon to challenger Nathan Hochman and Price to a recall. And San Francisco’s Mayor London Breed lost her reelection bid to a political outsider and nonprofit executive, Daniel Lurie.
With that being said, below you will find more detailed information highlighting the anticipated results from the 2024 election.
State Races
Below are the races we are watching closely:
State Senate
SD 5: Stockton
- McNerney (D) vs. Shoemaker (R)
- McNerney is leading this race and currently has 53% of the vote.
SD19: Riverside/San Bernardino
- Ochoa-Bogh (R) vs. Middleton (D)
- Ochoa-Bogh is leading this race and currently has 54% of the vote.
SD23: Yucaipa
- Valladares (R) vs. Mueller (D)
- Valladares is leading this race and currently has 52% of the vote.
SD35: Gardena
- Richardson (D) vs. Chambers (D)
- Richardson has a narrow lead over Chambers – Richardson has 50.6% of the vote and Chambers has 49.4%.
SD 37:
- Choi (R) vs. Newman (D)
- Choi currently has an extremely narrow lead over Newman – the Democratic incumbent. Choi has 51% of the vote and Newman has 49% of the vote.
State Assembly
AD7: Folsom
- Hoover (R) vs. Middleton (D)
- Hoover is leading this race and currently has 54% of the vote.
AD26: Campbell
- Ahrens (D) vs. Sreekrishnan (D)
- Ahrens won this race and received 56% of the vote.
AD27: Fresno
- Soria (D) vs. Rose (R)
- Soria is leading this race and currently has 53% of the vote.
AD40: Chatsworth
- Schiavo (D) vs. Gipson (R)
- Schiavo is leading this race and currently has 53% of the vote.
AD47: Palm Springs
- Wallis (R) vs. Holstege (D)
- Wallis has an extremely narrow lead over Holstege. Wallis has 50.2% of the vote and Holstege has 49.8% of the vote.
AD57: Los Angeles
- Martinez (D) vs. Elhawary (D)
- Elhawary won this race and received more than 61% of the vote.
AD76: San Diego
- Bruce-Lane (R) vs. Patel (D)
- Patel is leading this race and currently has 54% of the vote.
AD79: San Diego
- Parent (D) vs. Sharpe-Collins (D)
- Sharpe-Collins is leading this race and has 54% of the vote.
If the data holds as it currently stands, the Assembly will have 60 Democrats and 20 Republicans. In the Senate, Democrats will have 30 and Republicans will have 10.
Propositions
Proposition 3: Constitutional Right to Marriage.
Proposition 3 amends the California constitution to recognize the fundamental right to marry, regardless of sex or race. It also removes language in the constitution stating that marriage is only between a man and a woman.
While same-sex marriage is legal in California, the California constitution currently contains language that bars same-sex marriage. This proposition removes that language and
officially enshrines the right to marriage (including same-sex marriage) in the constitution. It also adds additional protections in case the U.S. Supreme Court decides to overturn existing precedent on the issue.
The proposition passed with over 62% of California voters supporting the measure.
Proposition 6: Eliminates Constitutional Provision Allowing Involuntary Servitude for Incarcerated Persons.
Proposition 6 would have banned forced labor in California by repealing language in the constitution that allows involuntary servitude in state prisons as a form of punishment. Prop 6 would have instead, made all work assignments voluntary so incarcerated people could prioritize rehabilitation.
This was largely seen as an effort to ban the remnants of slavery in California. Thousands of prisoners are forced to work in the prison system but are paid less the 74 cents an hour. If they do not complete their work – including for reasons such as injury, illness, or bereavement – they often are hit with additional disciplinary actions and lose privileges like visitation rights.
This proposition was placed on the ballot after the legislature supported a measure to end involuntary servitude in state prisons. The proposition has a strong support coalition and no opposition.
However, the measure is expected to fail with only about 46% of California voters supporting it.
Proposition 32: Raises Minimum Wage.
Proposition 32 would have raised California’s minimum wage from $16 an hour to $18 an hour. California has generally been supportive of increasing minimum wages for workers – most recently with fast food workers who received a $20 minimum wage and health care workers who will eventually receive a $25 minimum wage. The sponsor of this measure is Joe Sanberg, who is an entrepreneur, investor, and anti-poverty advocate. Prop 32 was unofficially supported by labor unions, progressive groups, and the California Democratic Party – but none of these groups were officially on the ballot.
The California Chamber of Commerce opposed the prop, along with retailers, small business groups, and restaurant groups.
This proposition is too close to call – as of this week, 50.9% of voters reject the prop and 49.1% support it. However, we anticipate that it is likely to fail.
Proposition 33: Expands Local Governments’ Authority to Enact Rent Control on Residential Property.
Proposition 33 would repeal the 1995 “Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act” related to rent control. The prop would have allowed local governments to pass stricter rent control laws – which they are currently barred from doing under state law.
There have been three attempts to repeal Costa Hawkins since 2018. Prop 33, and similar measures, have been sponsored by the AIDS Healthcare Foundation (AHF). All three measures were opposed by California real estate groups. They outspent AFH on all attempts – and argued that strengthening rent control laws would disincentivize developers from building the housing California desperately needs to meet its housing goals.
The most interesting thing about this initiative is that it is directly tied to Proposition 34. The California Apartment Association – who sponsors Prop 34 – directly targeted the AHF in that prop by limiting how they can use the money they receive from the federal government on advocacy issues.
This measure failed. Less than 40% of voters supported the measure.
Proposition 34: Restricts Spending of Prescription Drug Revenues by Certain Health Care Providers.
Proposition 34 is sponsored by the California Apartment Association and other California real estate groups. It is directly aimed at hindering the political power of the AHF. This measure will likely force the AHF out of housing issues and only impacts AFH.
This prop is too close to call. Currently, 50.7% of Californians support the measure and 49.3% reject it.
Proposition 35: Provides Permanent Funding for Medi-Cal Health Care Services.
California has greatly expanded the amount of people eligible for Medi-Cal (the state’s version of Medicaid) over the last two decades. Nearly 15 million people, or approximately one third of the state’s population, are currently served by Medi-Cal. But doctors and health care providers have complained that the state has not reimbursed them for the services they provide to California’s most vulnerable populations – which has led patients to experience extremely long wait times for receiving care and overall poor health outcomes.
The health care community has been pushing for permanent funding for the Medi-Cal system – arguing that since there are not enough doctors to serve the system, patients would continue to receive low quality care. While there have been promises to fully fund Medi-Cal, many efforts have fallen through. For example, Newsom committed to directing more money into Medi-Cal last year, but ultimately ended up using the funds to fill the state’s budget deficit.
In response to these fallouts, the entire health care community rallied behind Prop 35, which requires the state to fully reimburse Medi-Cal providers for their services. The support coalition includes doctors, hospitals, dentists, clinics, emergency responders, and Planned Parenthood.
We anticipate this prop will pass. Over 67% of voters have supported the measure.
Proposition 36: Allows Felony Charges and Increases Sentences for Certain Drug and Theft Crimes.
Proposition 36 is perhaps the most controversial ballot initiative in this year’s election cycle.
California voters passed Proposition 47 in 2014. Prop 47 was a progressive reformation of the California criminal justice system and recategorized certain non-violent crimes – like shoplifting, grand theft, and use of certain drugs – as misdemeanors rather than felonies.
However, Californians saw a dramatic increase in these property crimes following the COVID-19 pandemic and have been demanding that lawmakers take action to address the increase in crimes for the past four years.
While the legislature has made some efforts to answer their constituents’ cries, law enforcement groups, major California retailers, and some Democratic mayors have placed the blame directly on Prop 47 for the increase of these crimes.
Prop 36 was a product of this frustration and directly alters Prop 47 by increasing penalties for property theft and organized retail theft. Additionally, individuals convicted of fentanyl-related crimes will now be subject to mandated prison time if they sold fentanyl or similar drugs while
armed. Dealers also have the potential to be charged with murder if the drugs they sold caused someone to fatally overdose.
Potentially the biggest rollback of California progressivism: individuals found with fentanyl or similar drugs are now subject to “treatment-mandated” felony charges. Meaning, that if they refuse to participate in rehab, they can spend up to three years in prison.
Supporters of Prop 36 believe it is a multi-pronged approach that will help address the state’s most pressing issues on homelessness, drugs, and organized retail theft.
The proposition will likely pass. Over 69% of voters support it, even with strong opposition from criminal justice advocates and the Democratic Party – including Newsom.
Local Pulse
Los Angeles
Los Angeles City Council
District 2
- Adrin Nazarian vs. Jillian Burgos
- Nazarian is leading this race and currently has 54% of the vote.
District 10
- Heather Hutt vs. Grace Yoo
- Hutt is leading this race and currently has 63% of the vote.
District 14
- Ysabel Jurado vs. Kevin De Leon
- Jurado is leading this race and currently has 57% of the vote.
District Attorney George Gascón – who has been in office since 2020 – was fighting to keep his seat as his public support dropped and he faced opposition from his own deputy DA. He’s fought off two recall attempts and is known for his rehabilitative approach and reform-minded policies on crime. However, a strong campaign was presented by former Assistant U.S. Attorney General Nathan Hochman, who has a more traditional approach on criminal justice policies.
Hochman defeated Gascón and received over 60% of the vote.
Measure G
Measure G expands the L.A. County Board of Supervisors seats from five to nine by adding four new board members and an elected county executive to part with some of
its power. The measure also calls for the creation of an independent ethics commission to root out corruption in county government.
Since 1926, voters have rejected measures to expand the board eight times. Most recently was in 2000. The supervisors were divided on the measure. Supervisors Holly Mitchell and Kathryn Barger oppose it, while Supervisors Lindsey Horvath, Janice Hahn, and Hilda Solis support it.
The measure is expected to pass and has received 51% of the vote.
Northern California
San Francisco Mayor Race
Mayor London Breed faced numerous contenders in this election cycle. She has been mayor since 2018 and is a leader of the San Francisco moderate party. However, she has recently come under increased scrutiny following the pandemic. Empty offices buildings, homelessness, and the drug crisis has been top of mind for the city of San Francisco – and voters have been craving new leadership so the city can break free from its “Doom Loop” stereotype.
San Francisco uses a unique voting system, also known as ranked-choice voting (RCV). RCV allows voters to select multiple candidates and rank them in order of preference. The votes are processed in batches and the candidate with the fewest votes in each batch is eliminated. Their votes are then transferred to the candidate that the voter ranked next on their ballot.
It takes multiple elimination rounds before a winner is determined. After multiple rounds of voting – only two were left standing: Mayor London Breed and the Levi Strauss heir Daniel Lurie.
Lurie used much of his own money to fund his campaign and has directly blamed Mayor Breed for San Francisco’s problems. He has promised the city that he will be the one to clean it up. While he has as polled well throughout the campaign, his numbers really increased during the final weeks of the race.
Lurie greatly benefited from RCV this cycle. He took about 28% of the votes for the first round (4% more than Mayor Breed). And insiders suggested that Lurie specifically benefited from being ranked second in the crowded mayoral race. Because when the other candidates – like Progressive Aaron Peskin or Conservative Mark Farrell – were eliminated, he received their votes.
On Thursday, incumbent Mayor Breed conceded the election. Lurie will be the next mayor of San Francisco and received 56.2% of the votes.
Sacramento Mayor Race
Sacramento’s Mayor Darryl Steinberg decided not to run for mayor in the 2024 election cycle. With this announcement, many candidates decided to throw their hat in the ring to pick up his seat – which he has occupied since 2016.
Two Democratic candidates are currently fighting it out at the end of this cycle. Former Assemblymember Kevin McCarty and epidemiologist Dr. Flojaune Cofer. While both candidates are generally viewed as progressive, McCarty is the slightly more moderate candidate.The candidates have similar stances on most issues but take slightly different positions on how to tackle those issues– like homelessness, policing, and housing. For example, McCarty has committed to giving the police more money, while Cofer said she would shift portions of the police budget to fund more rehabilitate services.
Last we checked, McCarty was leading this race at 55%. The city still needs to count additional ballots and while we anticipate McCarty winning, the race is still too close to call.
Oakland Recall Elections
Oakland is facing two major recall efforts on this year’s ballot: Mayor Sheng Thao and District Attorney Pamela Price. Both Mayor Thao and DA Price are progressives and both came under scrutiny this past year. Mayor Thao for Oakland’s small businesses shutting down, the perception that crime is increasing, and for the beloved Oakland A’s baseball team leaving the city. Her home was also recently raided by the FBI, which has left voters with a sense of distrust.
DA Price has been criticized for being too progressive and not tough on crime. She was elected in 2023 and promised to reform the criminal justice system – but many have viewed her decisions and policies as weaknesses.
Both candidates have been recalled with roughly 65% of voters supporting each recall.
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