2021 U.S. Elections Outlook

September 15, 2021

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Welcome to McGuireWoods Consulting’s 2021 U.S. Elections Outlook — your one-stop resource for this year’s state races. Complete with concise information about how state elections are shaping up around the country — our site provides a landscape view of our nation’s political scene and insights on potential shifts in the tide.

Our goal is to provide business leaders and constituents quick, reliable access to comprehensive information about this year’s elections. Based on a compilation of public polling and forecasting data collected and analyzed by UVA Center for Elections and the Cook Political Report, information provided on our site will be updated as appropriate.We hope you find our site helpful, and please let us know if you have any questions about the 2021 elections.

new jersey

   New Jersey

 

 

Gubernatorial 

Phil Murphy Jack Ciattarelli

Democratic Nominee: Phil Murphy (incumbent)

 Republican Nominee: Jack Ciattarelli

Primary Results

  • Phil Murphy (incumbent): Uncontested
  • Jack Ciattarelli (former state representative): 49.5%, 167,690 votes

Analysis

  • Incumbent Gov. Murphy is expected to win a second term easily. 
  • There are more than one million more registered Democrats in New Jersey than Republicans. 

This race is safely Democratic.

State Legislature

General Assembly
Current: 53-27 D

Senate
Current: 25-15 D

Analysis

  • Democrats are expected to keep their majorities in all branches of government, including the General Assembly and Senate. 
  • Since 1992, New Jersey has consistently voted for Democratic candidates in the presidential election. Since 2002, Democrats have controlled both chambers of the state legislature. 

This race is safely Democratic.

Top Policy Issues

  • Redistricting. In November of 2020, New Jersey voters approved to postpone the scheduled 2021 redistricting. The current status of the districts will remain in place until after the 2023 election cycle. 

virginia

  Virginia

 

Gubernatorial

Terry McAuliffe Glenn Youngkin

Democratic Nominee: Terry McAuliffe

Republican Nominee: Glenn Youngkin


Primary Results

  • Terry McAuliffe (former governor): 62.2%; 303,546 votes
  • Glenn Youngkin (businessman): 54.2%; 6,867 votes 

Analysis

  • Gov. McAuliffe is running for a second term as governor, after serving as Virginia’s 72nd governor from 2014-2018. If he wins, McAuliffe will be the first Virginia governor to serve two terms since 1978. In 2014, Gov. McAuliffe won the election by 2.6 points. 
  • Glenn Youngkin is a businessman with no political background or voting record. He has secured President Trump’s endorsement for this race. 

This race leans Democratic.

Lieutenant Governor

Hala Ayala Winsome Sears

Democratic Nominee: Hala Ayala

Republican Nominee: Winsome Sears


Primary Results

  • Hala Ayala (state representative): 37.5%, 178,276 votes
  • Winsome Sears (former state representative): 54.4%, 6,828 votes

Analysis

  • This race will likely be tied to the results of Virginia’s gubernatorial election.

This race leans Democratic.

Attorney General

Mark Herring Jason Miyares

Democratic Nominee: Mark Herring (incumbent)

Republican Nominee: Jason Miyares


Primary Results

  • Mark Herring (incumbent): 56.5%, 267,504 votes
  • Jason Miyares (state representative): 51.7%, 6,490 votes

Analysis

  • Attorney General Mark Herring is running for re-election. In 2017, he won 53% of the vote. In 2013, he won by 165 votes out of the 2.2 million cast. 
  • This race will likely be tied to the results of Virginia’s gubernatorial election.

This race leans Democratic.

State Legislature

House of Delegates
Current: 55-45 D

  • All 100 seats of Virginia’s House of Delegates are on the ballot this year. 

This race leans Democratic.

Top Policy Issues

The Virginia election will be the first big test for Democrats after President Biden’s victory. 

  • Gun Control. The Democratic controlled state legislature introduced several bills around gun control in 2020, including background checks for gun sales, a limit on handgun purchases and removal of firearms from persons with risk to self and others. 
  • Minimum Wage. The 2020 General Assembly passed a $1.25 increase to minimum wage that went into effect May 1, 2021. Minimum wage will increase each year until Jan. 1, 2026 at $15 per hour. 
  • Redistricting. Virginia will not be announcing new districts until 2022.
  • Marijuana. On July 1, 2021, marijuana became legal for recreational use in Virginia. It is now legal for adults 21 years and older to possess one ounce and to grow up to four plants per household. Retail sales of marijuana will not be legal in the commonwealth until 2024. 
  • Criminal Justice Reform. Gov. Northam signed several criminal justice reform bills into law, including measures that raise the felony larceny threshold, permanently eliminating driver’s license suspensions for unpaid fines, fees and court costs, raising the age of juvenile transfer to adult court and reforming parole.