NCGA Week in Review

October 26, 2018

Pardon Our Dust

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Early voting has started in North Carolina. More than 560,000 people have voted early across the state in the week that polls have been open. That would account for 8% of voters in the state voting early in person. The State Board of Elections has estimated another 100,000 voters have returned their absentee mail ballots. While it is still too early to forecast if the high turnout will continue, the numbers could indicate tighter races than expected. 

McGuireWoods Consulting has published an interactive state by state analysis of race that you can view here.

Election Forecast: Spotlight on the North Carolina House of Representatives

The Republicans currently hold a supermajority in the House with 75 of the 120 total seats. Though it is technically possible for the Democrats to regain a majority, it is viewed as unlikely that the Democrats will flip enough seats for a change in power to occur. The Democratic party is focusing its energy on ending the supermajority instead.  Democrats need to pick up four seats to break the three-fifths Republican supermajority. 

All 120 House seats are up for election in 2018.

In the contested elections, many factors will figure into the races: the district’s partisan voting habits, fundraising and advertising efforts, local and statewide news and the power of incumbency all play into election results. The Civitas Institute has identified 20 battleground house races.14 of these districts have Republican incumbents and six with Democratic incumbents. These races are key in what could be a potential shift in the balance of power in the legislature.

2018 North Carolina House Battlegrounds

Chart source: NC CIVITAS

N.C. House of Representative Races

Voters across North Carolina have or will be heading to the polls to vote for who represents them in the N.C. House of Representatives. Changes in districts, competitive races, and political rhetoric from the national level will factor into many races. In past years, many candidates have ran unopposed but this year all 120 seats are challenged. Our friends at North Carolina Free Enterprise Foundation have broken down the candidates for each House seat across the State.

2018 Candidate Tracker

2018 Candidate Tracker - Pt. II

2018 Candidate Tracker - Pt. III

2018 Candidate Tracker - Pt. IV

2018 Candidate Tracker - Pt. V

2018 Candidate Tracker - Pt. VI

2018 Candidate Tracker - Pt. VII

Upcoming Event

“The Significance of Election 2018”:  Policy Initiatives for 2018 and Beyond

Click to Register

Thursday, November 8, 2018
1:30 p.m. – 2:30 p.m. (ET)

Please join McGuireWoods Consulting’s federal public affairs team and special guest, Professor Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, for a conference call discussion of the results of the 2018 election.

Professor Sabato will provide analysis of the election outcome and offer his insights on the results of this year’s historic Senate & House races.

Gov. Jim HodgesL.F. PayneFrank DonatelliPaul Reagan, and other McGuireWoods Consulting team members will discuss the likely impact of the election results in key policy areas. Participants will have an opportunity to ask questions.

For more information, please contact Ann Thomas,

Dial-in information will be included in your registration confirmation email.

Election Resources

To see more about North Carolina Elections, candidate breakdowns, and fundraising numbers, check out these fantastic charts from our friends at the NC Free Enterprise Foundation:

McGuireWoods State by State Analysis

2018 Candidate Tracker – NC Free Enterprise Foundation

NC BAR Survey

Judicial Voter Guide